Sunday, October 4, 2015

Week 4 Picks

It's already Week 4 of the NFL Schedule! The teams are just now getting lathered-up. Whatever that means. Teams are settling into a groove or trying to get out of a funk. No matter their respective situation teams are settling into the routines of an NFL season. And we get bye weeks. Week 4 is a really stupid time to have a bye. It's way too early. The New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans are the teams saddled with a week 4 bye. The NFL and the Patriots aren't seeing things eye-to-eye right now so it wasn't a surprise to see them get a week 4 bye. It's not as bad as losing a 1st and 4th-round pick or their starting quarterback but a week 4 bye is a punishment of sorts. I guess that the Titans got saddled with it as well because it really wouldn't look right to have only the Patriots sitting out this early in the season. Or maybe it's all just a coincidence and/or blind luck. I don't see why the NFL can't give eight teams a bye in each of four weeks in the middle of the season. Say, weeks 7-10. It would cut into the volume of football action in those weeks but it's the same number of games and same amount of money in the end. And the NFL really only cares about the money in the end. This would also balance out the fairness of the bye weeks. As it stands now week 4 is way too early and week 11 is getting a little late. Not only do we have the arrival of bye weeks this week we have the first of three games that will be played in London. The second and third games will be played in weeks 7 and 8. Today the Miami Dolphins will pose as hosts to the New York Jets at Wembley Stadium. All three of the London games will be starting at the frighteningly early time of 6:30 AM on the west coast of the U.S. This early start makes for a frighteningly long, fun day of football. 14-15 straight hours! Interrupted only by commercials for Draft Kings/FanDuel. My feelings on these London games aren't nearly as strong as those on early season bye weeks. I can understand the NFL's desire to "expand the brand" but I really don't like that fans of three teams lose a home game. There's only eight home games on a regular season schedule. Losing one of them is significant. Some fans of teams work all year so that they can afford their season tickets. Traveling to London for a "home" game isn't as feasible for them as it is for billionaire owners. Roger Goodell routinely shouts that everything that the NFL does is for the fans. In this case it really isn't.

So, how about some picks.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins in London
Pick: Jets
If this game was really in Miami I'd pick the home team.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Colts
Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is questionable for the game. The Colts really have to get their quarterback healthy and get on track. It might be best to sit Luck and hope that Matthew Hasselbeck handle the Jaguars. They have a really short week with a week 5 Thursday game. Maybe this Colts team isn't as talented as I think that they are but this season could get away from them in a hurry if Luck can't get/stay healthy.

New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills
Pick: Bills
The Giants are real close to being one of the undefeated teams. They are even closer to being one of the winless teams. The Bills defense is great. Their offense has been fine without much help from playmakers LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins. Tyrod Taylor has been the difference and I'm not sure that the Giants defense can slow him enough so that their offense can score enough.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Panthers
The Panthers are undefeated with perhaps the weakest early schedule in the league. It doesn't get any harder here.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
Pick: Redskins
I'll go with the home team in this battle of schizophrenic teams.

Oakland Raiders @ Chicago Bears
Pick: Raiders
It feels strange to pick the Raiders in away games. Any games really. The Bears auctioned off nearly a third of their defense this week. It's strange to see a team start a rebuilding process during the season.

Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Texans
I just feel an upset here but I don't think that anyone can stop Julio Jones right now. I'll still go with the upset.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Chiefs
Like the Texans-Falcons game I feel an upset over an undefeated team at home.

Cleveland Browns @ San Diego Chargers
Pick: Chargers
The Chargers have to get their offensive line healthy. The Vikings got to Philip Rivers way too often last week. The Chargers have too much offense for the Browns offense to match.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Packers
I think that this going to be a better game than most expect but Aaron Rodgers is just too good.

St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Rams
The Cardinals are playing like one of the best teams but their opening schedule rivals the Panthers for the weakest in the league. The Rams become a whole other team when they face their division opponents. The Cardinals could stumble here.

Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos
Pick: Vikings
Of course.

Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints
Pick: Saints
This game is a coin flip for me and the coin came up Saints. As long as Drew Brees is in the game and stays in the game. I just don't trust Brandon Weeden to carry the Cowboys unless they can routinely run the ball for at least 200 yards.

Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Seahawks
The Lions are going to win soon but I don't see it coming against the Seahawks in Seattle and in prime time.

There it is. Week 4 picks. Put no faith in them.






4 comments:

  1. Just discovered this blog a few days ago. Lots of good stuff on here.

    I like the write-up you had a year ago or so on Rodgers and how he was the best college QB you saw in person. I also saw how you mentioned the name Joe Roth. It's ashame what happened to him. He would have been one of the greats.

    Also, on another entry you had (from a few years ago), you mentioned something about how the Jets would have drafted Percy Harvin and tried to bring back Favre in 09 if they didn't get Sanchez. If they have Favre and Harvin, they win the SB that year. No doubt.

    That was from a "what if" write-up you had. I like talking about those from time to time. Green and Gold forever, a Packer podcast, had several shows that discussed "what if" topics about the Pack, and they also did an NFL show once, too. I also have discussed those things on an alternate history board with fans.

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  2. Thanks for checking out my blog and I appreciate the comments. I especially appreciate your remembrance of Joe Roth. Sometimes it seems that only those associated with Cal recall the great man and quarterback that he was. I really enjoy the "what if" scenarios that help make the history of the league so fascinating. I'll try to do more of those.

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  3. Check this out:

    Sports Post: What if Joe Roth didn't die of Melanoma

    Last year, Sam Quinn of The Sports Post did the 50 greatest "what ifs" in NFL History, and one about Roth was one of them.

    It was an entertaining write-up, but I think that Roth would have ended up with the Rams if he didn't pass away. Seattle was going to trade their #2 pick away in 77 to someone, and the Rams had the depth and draft choices necessary to make such a trade, along with a big need at QB.

    Oh, and by the way, the Vikes played good yesterday (I am a Denver fan). Bridgewater held up well even though he was pressured constantly. Minnesota has a good young team.

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  4. Thanks for the link. Those sorts of things are always fun. That one is just sad that it's speculating what might have been if Roth had lived.
    The Vikings line is a work in progress. In that sense it's a good thing that their most difficult task is behind them. The Broncos pass rush is ridiculous.

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