Predicting The Head Coaching Churn

The annual head coaching churn started last week. Interviews will continue through the rest of the month. Here’s a stab at who lands where. 

New England Patriots

Jerod Mayo

This one is a done deal. It was a done deal as soon as Bill Belichick left the building.

Carolina Panthers

Mike Vrabel

This job is the most difficult to predict. It’s difficult to predict because I’m not sure any of the potential candidates will want to work for owner David Tepper. Being around this guy sounds like a nightmare. There’s only 32 NFL head coaching jobs. Even with an ass like Tepper as owner, every job will be in demand. Mike Vrabel is a terrific coach. Tepper’s immense amount of cash gets the deal done. 

Las Vegas Raiders

Antonio Pierce

By the end of the season, it felt like Antonio Pierce was the only choice. 

Los Angeles Chargers

Jim Harbaugh

If Jim Harbaugh jumps to the NFL, it feels like the Chargers are the team.

Atlanta Falcons

Bill Belichick

When Billl Belichick became available last week, I was reminded that Falcons owner Arthur Blank had taken previous big swings at bringing in Bill Parcells and Joe Gibbs. Blank finally gets his big name head coach.

Washington Commanders

Ben Johnson

I’ve felt since last year’s coaching churn that Ben Johnson was going to get a head coach opportunity as soon as he wanted one. He decided that he wasn’t ready last season. If he decides that he’s ready this season, he gets one of these jobs. All signs seem to point to Washington as the team. 

Tennessee Titans

Raheem Morris

I was leaning Bobby Slowik simply because of his shared San Francisco experience with Titans GM Ran Carthon. It just feels a little early for the 36-year old Slowik. He’s only called plays for a single season. I feel like this is the year that Raheem Morris gets another shot at leading a team. The Titans have yet to request an interview but this feels like a fine spot for Morris. 

Seattle Seahawks

Dan Quinn

This prediction just feels lazy. It also feels natural. 

Six of the eight vacant head coach jobs feel easy to predict. 

New England 

Las Vegas

Los Angeles

Atlanta 

Washington 

Seattle

The New England job was filled as soon as it opened. The other five feel so easy to predict that they can’t possibly be right. A lot actually depends on whether Jim Harbaugh returns to the NFL. If he stays at Michigan, Bill Belichick might choose the Chargers. If that happens, perhaps Raheem Morris returns to Atlanta, Ran Carthon goes with the youngster Bobby Slowik in Tennessee, and Brian Callahan or Dave Canales has to deal with David Tepper.