Friday, June 12, 2020

Then And Maybe Now

Every offseason brings some change to an NFL team. This offseason brought more change than usual to the Minnesota Vikings, especially on defense. That the defense saw a lot of change is hardly a surprise. There's been little change over the six years that Mike Zimmer has been head coach. Change was inevitable and due. The roster probably needed a little shaking. This offseason of roster shaking can be easily seen in a comparison between last year's starters and this year's projected starters.

2019 Minnesota Vikings Starters

Offense

WR Adam Thielen
TE Kyle Rudolph
LT Riley Reiff
LG Pat Elflein
C Garrett Bradbury
RG Josh Kline
RT Brian O'Neill
WR Stefon Diggs
QB Kirk Cousins
RB Dalvin Cook
FB C.J. Ham

Defense

DE Everson Griffen
DT Shamar Stephen
NT Linval Joseph
DE Danielle Hunter
LB Anthony Barr
LB Eric Kendricks
LB Ben Gedeon
CB Xavier Rhodes
CB Trae Waynes
S Harrison Smith
S Anthony Harris

2020 Minnesota Vikings Projected Starters

Offense

WR Adam Thielen
TE Kyle Rudolph
LT Ezra Cleveland
LG Riley Reiff
C Garrett Bradbury
RG Dru Samia
RT Brian O'Neill
WR Justin Jefferson
QB Kirk Cousins
RB Dalvin Cook
FB C.J. Ham

Defense

DE Danielle Hunter
DT Armon Watts
NT Michael Pierce
DE Ifeadi Odenigbo
LB Anthony Barr
LB Eric Kendricks
LB Eric Wilson
CB Mike Hughes
CB Jeff Gladney
S Harrison Smith
S Anthony Harris

I hate making roster/lineup projections in early June. It doesn't feel fair to disregard or make assumptions about what may or may not happen in training camp. I can't help making those roster/lineup projections in early June. I can't help making those projections in March, April, May, or July either. I'm a fan. It's what I do.

Of the 22 starters on offense and defense, I'm projecting, in early June, nine new starters. Six of those new starters are on defense.

Offense:
LT  Ezra Cleveland
RG  Dru Samia
WR Justin Jefferson

Defense
DT Armon Watts
NT Michael Pierce
DE Ifeadi Odenigbo
LB Eric Wilson
CB Mike Hughes
CB Jeff Gladney

I also have Riley Reiff playing a different position in 2020 than he played in 2019. Some projections by national talking heads have Reiff remaining at left tackle and rookie Ezra Cleveland playing left guard. It's safe to say that Cleveland was selected in the second round to be the team's franchise left tackle. Perhaps because of the hacked-up offseason, those talking heads don't see the rookie becoming the left tackle this season. I think Cleveland playing any position other than left tackle as a season lost. I'd rather see Reiff make a position change. I also like the idea of an experienced left tackle lining up next to a rookie left tackle. I also think that the above projected offensive line starters puts the five best players on the field. 

I have the Vikings' two first round draft picks, receiver Justin Jefferson and corner Jeff Gladney, starting as rookies. So, with Cleveland, the team's first three picks are starting as rookies. 

The rookie starters might not end with the top three draft picks. I see a couple fourth-round picks as under-the-radar candidates to start, defensive tackle James Lynch and linebacker Troy Dye. One of the most interesting training camp battles will be for the starting three-technique job. Lynch will be part of that battle. I saw a lot of Dye during his college days at Oregon. As a Cal fan, I saw too much of Dye during his college days at Oregon. He's a very versatile athlete. Perhaps he settles in as an impact special teams player as a rookie but I think he's a threat to incumbents Eric Wilson and Ben Gedeon at linebacker. Another rookie, third-round corner Cameron Dantzler, could force his way onto the field in nickel situations.

A lot of attention has been paid to the changes in the defensive backfield. The starting safeties return but the top three cornerbacks departed in free agency. The changes on the defensive line have received much less attention. There will probably be three new starters on the line and the one returning starter might be playing a new position. Nose tackle Linval Joseph left in free agency. Michael Pierce was signed in free agency to replace him. Joseph was on the wrong side of his prime years. Pierce is in the middle of his. I loved what Joseph did during his time in Minnesota but I like this exchange. Defensive end Everson Griffen remains unsigned but has said his Minnesota goodbyes. As long as he remains unsigned there's a chance for a reunion. That seems to get more remote each day. Ifeadi Odenigbo is next up to replace Griffen. He had seven sacks in something of a breakout season last season. If he can play more snaps like he often played in limited snaps, Odenigbo should be fine. Griffen is a difficult player to replace, as a player and team leader. Shamar Stephen is the incumbent three-technique but it's no secret that the Vikings would like more of pass rushing threat at the position. I really like the potential of Armon Watts in his second year. He flashed at the end of his rookie season. Watts, Stephen, Jaleel Johnson, Jalyn Holmes, Hercules Mata'afa, and rookie James Lynch will take part in a very interesting training competition for the starting three-technique job. Danielle Hunter is the lone returning starter. He's a beast. He developed into a beast as from the left side of the line. I'm not sure if the Vikings have plans to move him to the right side.

The offense is much more stable. Other than the continuing development of the offensive line, the only change on offense is a swap at receiver. It's a significant change. Stefon Diggs was sadly traded to Buffalo at the start of the offseason. I've shed plenty of tears over this departure. At least the Vikings received a good return from the Bills. Part of that return was the first round pick that brought Justin Jefferson to the team. He has the talent, technique, and polish to be productive early. In a very deep and talented receiver draft class, Jefferson might be the receiver most ready for the NFL. Diggs left big shoes to fill.

Roster change can be fun and exciting. I'm not sure that the roster shaking that the Vikings underwent this offseason makes them a better team in Week 1. I do think that more football talent was added to the team than was lost. As a result of that added talent, I think that the Vikings will be a better team by the midpoint of the 2020 season than they were at any point of the 2019 season. That's change for the good. 


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