Analytics

I'm not sure why so many have gravitated towards numbers to explain away sports. Bill James and all the other mathematicians have turned baseball into a game of percentages. More like rolling a dice than anything involving a ball. This trend is creeping into football. Some teams even have an analytic department. There are websites devoted to the crunching of play on the football field into numbers, charts and graphs. Two of the most prominent are Aaron Schatz's Football Outsiders and Neil Hornsby's Pro Football Focus. There's a lot to like about these numbers. Quantifying the play of an offensive lineman has never been done before. Every other position in football generates some statistics that allows one to evaluate performance on the football field. Tackles, receptions, yards rushing, touchdowns, sacks, etc. Each paints a picture that we've used to judge a football player for decades. These numbers have never been an absolute judge but they can be pretty accurate. Now the offensive linemen are getting their own numbers. It's fine day, or sad, for the fat guys.

These number crunchers have also brought to us numbers that we've never seen before. You can find the production of backs and receivers on various downs and distances. Team defense in the third quarter. An offense's two minute efficiency. Pretty much anything that strikes your fancy has probably been broken down into an easily manageable number.

The problem that I have with numbers explaining away football is the use of them in making decisions going forward. I don't think that numbers generated from past performances can accurately predict football players making plays. Percentages probably say that a kick returner shouldn't bring a kick back from nine yards deep in the end zone. I'd let Percy Harvin return a kick if he caught the kick in the stands. I've seen football players do things that no number would say that they could or should. I think that all of these numbers are great in revealing how teams and players have performed. I think that it's a mistake to rely on these numbers to tell teams or players how they should perform.