Super Bowl Prediction

Super Bowl LV is finally here. Kanas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Literally. This Super Bowl will be the first to include a team playing in their own stadium. It won’t help.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Pick: Chiefs 

Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady enters this game hoping to win his seventh Super Bowl. Instead, he loses his fourth Super Bowl.

One of my favorite players in this game, and any game that he plays, is Chiefs defender Tyrann Mathieu. It’d be wrong to box him into any one position. This nugget from Next Gen Stats shows his defensive versatility.

Mathieu’s snaps by position:

Safety: 508

Slot CB: 303

Outside LB: 115

Edge: 48

Inside LB: 43

Left CB: 11

Right CB: 5

Interior DL: 3

There isn’t a position on defense that Tyrann Mathieu hasn’t played this season. 

NFL Honors Predictions

The National Football League’s annual award show is tonight. NFL Honors. Unlike other award shows, Oscars, Golden Globes, Emmys, etc., NFL Honors doesn’t air live to all time zones. Here on the west coast, the show doesn’t air until 9:00 pm. It’s a rather stupid practice as the awards are announced in some fashion LIVE. The only reason to watch the show at 9:00 pm is to see Steve Harvey have fun with some players. The big awards are given out by so many people that there are few surprises come NFL Honors time. So, what difference does it make when each geographical section of the population “sees” the results? I’d sure like to see it live. I’d also prefer to see it at 6:00 rather than 9:00. I’m most interested in the Hall of Fame Class of 2021 and the Walter Payton Man of the Year reveals. Those reveals are always best received live. That’s enough bitching about NFL programming. Here’s a guess as to which players take home some hardware this evening. 

Most Valuable Player

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Offensive Player of the Year

Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

Defensive Player of the Year

Aaron Donald, DL, Los Angeles Rams

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

I actually think that Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert takes home this award. He shouldn’t. Herbert had a great rookie season. Jefferson had a great season. No rookie designation is necessary. Jefferson’s season was a great season if he’d been a five-year vet. He played the receiver position like he’d been in the league a while. Perhaps that disqualifies him. Herbert often looked like a rookie. The baseline for a quarterback taking home any award is lower than it is for any other position. It’s all about the quarterback.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Chase Young, DE, Washington

Comeback Player of the Year

Alex Smith, QB, Washington

Coach of the Year

Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns

Walter Payton Man of the Year

Eric Kendricks, LB, Minnesota Vikings

I hope that Eric Kendricks wins. All 32 nominees are deserving of the award. There are probably a dozen players on each team that are deserving. 

Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2021

Peyton Manning

Charles Woodson

Tony Boselli

Richard Seymour

Alan Faneca

Drew Pearson

Bill Nunn

Tom Flores

I think this is the first time that I’ve had Richard Seymour in the Class. He was one of the league’s best and most versatile defensive linemen in the 2000s. If he makes it, perhaps it opens the Hall door for Kevin Williams. He was also one of the best defensive linemen of the 2000s. 

Bucky Brooks’ First Mock Draft

I’ve always enjoyed the NFL draft takes of the Move the Sticks duo of Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks. They’ve done the scouting work. Most draft analysts do it for fun. They’ve done it for real. That doesn’t mean that they’re always right. It just means that they know how it works. Jeremiah released his first mock last week. Brooks released his this week. Here it is. 

1.   Jacksonville Jaguars-Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

2.   New York Jets-Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

3.   Miami Dolphins-Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

4.   Atlanta Falcons-Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

5.   Cincinnati Bengals-Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

6.   Philadelphia Eagles-Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

7.   Detroit Lions-Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

8.   Carolina Panthers-Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

9.   Denver Broncos-Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

10. Dallas Cowboys-Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

11. New York Giants-Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami 

12. San Francisco 49ers-Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

13. Los Angeles Chargers-Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern 

14. Minnesota Vikings-Kwity Paye, Edge, Michigan

15. New England Patriots-Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

16. Arizona Cardinals-Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama

17. Las Vegas Raiders-Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

18. Miami Dolphins-Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

19. Washington Football Team-Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

20. Chicago Bears-Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC

21. Indianapolis Colts-Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

22. Tennessee Titans-Azeez Ojulari, Edge, Georgia

23. New York Jets-Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

24. Pittsburgh Steelers-Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri

25. Jacksonville Jaguars-Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

26. Cleveland Browns-Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa

27. Baltimore Ravens-Jaelan Phillips, Edge, Miami

28. New Orleans Saints-Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

29. Green Bay Packers-Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan

30. Buffalo Bills-Carlos Basham Jr., Edge, Wake Forest

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Joseph Ossai, Edge, Texas

32. Kansas City Chiefs-Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida  

***

The eye-opener of Bucky Brooks’ mock draft is Alabama receiver Devonta Smith dropping to the Arizona Cardinals at 16. He’d be fun to watch in a Kyler Murray-led offense. I suppose that I can see Smith dropping due to the NFL’s nearly universal preference for receivers that aren’t as slightly built as Smith. Talent works on a football field no matter the package and Devonta Smith has talent. 

As a Minnesota Vikings fan my early draft preferences at #14 have still looks something like this:

Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern 

Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami

Kwity Paye, Edge, Michigan 

For some reason, I feel that my preferences have been further refined to Christian Barmore or an offensive lineman. Rashawn Slater has been my favorite for a while. If he’s gone, as he is in Brooks’ mock, I think that I’m presently preferring Barmore or USC offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker. The Vikings have to improve the pass rush and I wouldn’t hate it if the Vikings picked Gregory Rousseau or Kwity Paye at #14. I’m just starting to think that the best way to improve the pass rush is from the interior of the defensive line. It’s been a while since the Vikings have had a three-technique (Kevin Williams) that spends a lot of his playing time in the opponents backfield. It’d be nice to have that again.

Throwback Thursday: Ranking The 54 Super Bowls

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs will play in Super Bowl LV this Sunday. It’ll be a home game for the Buccaneers. That’s a first. Tom Brady will be playing in his 10th championship game and for his seventh title. That isn’t a first. Otto Graham did it. He led the Cleveland Browns to seven titles and it only took him ten seasons to do it. Few care about Graham’s deeds because they came before the Super Bowls. This, however, isn’t about pre-Super Bowl history. This is about the Super Bowls that came before Sunday’s game. Here's a ranking of those 54 Super Bowls. I hope that the 55th will slide in somewhere near the top of next year's rankings. A good Super Bowl is a fun Super Bowl. 

54. Super Bowl IV-Kansas City Chiefs 23, Minnesota Vikings 7

53. Super Bowl VIII-Miami Dolphins 24, Minnesota Vikings 7

52. Super Bowl IX-Pittsburgh Steelers 16, Minnesota Vikings 6

51. Super Bowl XI-Oakland Raiders 32, Minnesota Vikings 14

50. Super Bowl XXIV-San Francisco 49ers 55, Denver Broncos 10

49. Super Bowl XLVIII-Seattle Seahawks 43, Denver Broncos 8

48. Super Bowl XX-Chicago Bears 46, New England Patriots 10

47. Super Bowl XXXV-Baltimore Ravens 34, New York Giants 7

46. Super Bowl XXIX-San Francisco 49ers 49, San Diego Chargers 26

45. Super Bowl XXXVII-Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48, Oakland Raiders 21

44. Super Bowl XXII-Washington Redskins 42, Denver Broncos 10

43. Super Bowl XXVII-Dallas Cowboys 52, Buffalo Bills 17

42, Super Bowl XII-Dallas Cowboys 27, Denver Broncos 10

41, Super Bowl XXXIII Denver Broncos 34, Atlanta Falcons 19

40. Super Bowl XVIII Los Angeles Raiders 38, Washington Redskins 9

39. Super Bowl XXVI-Washington Redskins 37, Buffalo Bills 24

38. Super Bowl XV-Oakland Raiders 27, Philadelphia Eagles 10

37. Super Bowl I-Green Bay Packers 35, Kansas City Chiefs 10

36, Super Bowl VI-Dallas Cowboys 24, Miami Dolphins 3

35. Super Bowl XL-Pittsburgh Steelers 21, Seattle Seahawks 10

34. Super Bowl XLI-Indianapolis Colts 29, Chicago Bears 17

33. Super Bowl II-Green Bay Packers 33, Oakland Raiders 14

32. Super Bowl XIX-San Francisco 49ers, 38, Miami Dolphins 16

31. Super Bowl V-Baltimore Colts 16, Dallas Cowboys 13

30. Super Bowl VII-Miami Dolphins 14, Washington Redskins 7

29, Super Bowl XXVIII-Dallas Cowboys 30, Buffalo Bills 13

28. Super Bowl XXI-New York Giants 39, Denver Broncos 20
27. Super Bowl XXXI-Green Bay Packers 35, New England Patriots 21

26. Super Bowl XXX-Dallas Cowboys 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 17
25. Super Bowl L-Denver Broncos 24, Carolina Panthers 10
24. Super Bowl XVII-Washington Redskins 27, Miami Dolphins 17

23. Super Bowl XLIV-New Orleans Saints 31, Indianapolis Colts 17
22. Super Bowl LIII-New England Patriots 13, Los Angeles Rams 3
21  Super Bowl XXXIX-New England Patriots 24, Philadelphia Eagles 21

20. Super Bowl XLV-Green Bay Packers 31, Pittsburgh Steelers 25

19. Super Bowl XLVI-New York Giants 21, New England Patriots 17

18. Super Bowl XXXII-Denver Broncos 31, Green Bay Packers 24

17. Super Bowl III-New York Jets 16, Baltimore Colts 7

16. Super Bowl XLVII-Baltimore Ravens 34, San Francisco 49ers 31
15. Super Bowl XXXIV-St. Louis Rams 23, Tennessee Titans 16
14. Super Bowl XVI-San Francisco 49ers 26, Cincinnati Bengals 21

13. Super Bowl XXXVI-New England Patriots 20, St. Louis Rams 17

12. Super Bowl XIV-Pittsburgh Steelers 31, Los Angeles Rams 19

11. Super Bowl LIV-Kansas City Chiefs 31, San Francisco 49ers 20

10. Super Bowl LII-Philadelphia Eagles 41, New England Patriots 33
  9. Super Bowl X-Pittsburgh Steelers 21, Dallas Cowboys 17

  8. Super Bowl XXIII-San Francisco 49ers 20, Cincinnati Bengals 16

  7. Super Bowl XXV-New York Giants 20, Buffalo Bills 19

  6. Super Bowl XXXVIII-New England Patriots 32, Carolina Panthers 29

  5. Super Bowl XLII-New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14
  4. Super Bowl LI-New England Patriots 34, Atlanta Falcons 28
  3. Super Bowl XLIX-New England Patriots 28, Seattle Seahawks 24
  2. Super Bowl XLIII-Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Arizona Cardinals 23

  1. Super Bowl XIII-Pittsburgh Steelers 35, Dallas Cowboys 31

Flea Flicker 2021 NFL Draft Position Rankings

Being a few weeks removed from the end of the regular season and watching the Senior Bowl has me thinking about the NFL Draft. That has me piecing together my early thoughts on the players that I like at each position. Here’s a first look at the Top 5 Draft Prospects at each position. 

Quarterback

1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

2. Zach Wilson, BYU

3. Justin Fields, Ohio State

4. Trey Lance, North Dakota State

5. Mac Jones, Alabama

Running Backs

1. Najee Harris, Alabama

2. Travis Etienne, Clemson

3. Trey Sermon, Ohio State

4. Michael Carter, North Carolina

5. Javonte Williams, North Carolina

Receivers

1. Ja’Marr Chase, LSU

2. DeVonta Smith, Alabama

3. Jaylen Waddle, Alabama

4. Rashod Bateman, Minnesota

5. Kadarius Toney, Florida

Tight Ends

1. Kyle Pitts, Florida

2. Pat Freiremuth, Penn State

3. Tommy Tremble, Notre Dame

4. Brevin Jordan, Miami

5. Hunter Long, Boston College

Tackles

1. Penei Sewell, Oregon

2. Rashawn Slater, Northwestern

3. Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC

4. Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech

5. Jalen Mayfield, Michigan

Interior Offensive Linemen

1. Wyatt Davis, Ohio State

2. Landon Dickerson, Alabama

3. Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma

4. Josh Myers, Ohio State

5. Trey Smith, Tennessee

Edge

1. Gregory Rousseau, Miami 

2. Kwity Paye, Michigan

3. Azeez Ojulari, Georgia

4. Joseph Ossai, Texas

5. Jaelan Phillips, Miami

Interior Defensive Linemen

1. Christian Barmore, Alabama

2. Levi Onwuzurike, Washington

3. Daviyon Nixon, Iowa

4. Marlon Tuipulotu, USC

5. Jay Tufele, USC

Linebackers

1. Micah Parsons, Penn State

2. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame

3. Zaven Collins, Tulsa

4. Nick Bolton, Missouri

5. Chazz Surratt, North Carolina

Cornerbacks 

1. Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech

2. Patrick Surtain II, Alabama

3. Jaycee Horn, South Carolina

4. Aaron Robinson, UCF

5. Greg Newsome II, Northwestern

Safeties

1. Trevon Moehrig, TCU

2. Jevon Holland, Oregon

3. Richie Grant, UCF

4. Talanoa Hufanga, USC

5. Hamsah Nasirildeen, Florida State

It’s a start... 

Daniel Jeremiah’s Top 50 Draft Prospect Rankings

More Jeremiah. He posted his first mock draft a couple weeks ago. He posted his first Top 50 ranking of the prospects for the 2021 NFL Draft last week. It’s definitely draft season. Now we need Bucky Brooks’ positional rankings. Until then, here’s Daniel Jeremiah’s Top 50 ranking of the 2021 NFL Draft Prospects.

1.   Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

2.   Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

3.   Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

4.   Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

5.   Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

6.   Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

7.   DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

8.   Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

9.   Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

10. Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

11. Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

12. Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

13. Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami

14. Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT, USC

15. Patrick Surtain, CB, Alabama

16. Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

17. Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

18. Kwity Paye, Edge. Michigan

19. Jaelan Phillips, Edge, Miami

20. Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida

21. Jeremiah Owuso-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

22. Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

23. Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington

24. Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan 

25. Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

26. Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa

27. Jayson Oweh, Edge, Penn State

28. Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

29. Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri

30. Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State

31. Tutu Atwell, WR, Louisville

32. Joe Tyron, Edge, Washington

33. Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

34. Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina

35. Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa

36. Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU

37. Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

38. Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State

39. Aaron Robinson, CB, UCF

40. Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern

41. Azeez Ojulari, Edge, Georgia

42. Patrick Jones II, Edge, Pittsburgh

43. Elijah Moore, WR, Mississippi

44. Landon Dickerson, C/G, Alabama

45. Marlon Tuipulotu, DT, USC

46. James Hudson, OT, Cincinnati

47. Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia

48. Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State

49. Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame

50. Dayo Odeyingbo, Edge, Vanderbilt

***

Northwestern tackle Rashawn Slater has been my favorite for the Minnesota Vikings for a few weeks. Despite being too early in the process to form any solid opinions, I thought that there’d be a decent chance for Slater to be on the board when the Vikings pick at #14. With all the damn love that Daniel Jeremiah has thrown his way I’m not sure that he makes it out of the top-10. If Jeremiah’s love for Slater is shared by other teams, especially those in front of the Vikings, maybe Oregon tackle Penei Sewell falls to within reach of #14. 

My early preferences for the Vikings at #14:

Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT, USC

Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami

Kwity Paye, Edge, Michigan

Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington

Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

Jeremiah has TCU safety Trevon Moehrig rated high enough that I should include him as well. Safety will probably be a need but I hadn’t considered the position a first round need. 

Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons is a player that intrigues me. I don’t currently see linebacker as an early round need of the Vikings. Parsons is such a good football player that he’d be tempting if still on the board. 

It feels a little strange to see a tight end ranked so high. 

Stafford-Goff Thoughts

This NFL offseason is expected to be one of quarterback movement. The first move happened over the weekend. It happened 1 1/2 months before the start of the offseason. The Detroit Lions traded Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams for Jared Goff, two fist round picks, and a third round pick. Two former #1 picks changed teams. The Lions will get the younger former #1 pick. The Rams will get the older former #1 pick. Over six years separate their ages. My immediate thought to the trade was “Wow, in an offseason of expected quarterback movement, two were moved in one trade.” I also immediately thought the Rams got much better at the game’s most important position. I’ve always been impressed by Matthew Stafford. Few quarterbacks in the league are his equal in pure quarterbacking talent. He was just stuck on some horrible football teams. No matter how bad those Lions teams were, Stafford often made them a difficult team to beat. Goff is capable of blindingly brilliant games. I think of the Thursday Night game against the Minnesota Vikings in 2018. He could do no wrong. I think of that wild Monday Night game against the Kansas City Chiefs. He led the Rams to the Super Bowl that season. Stafford never come close to a Super Bowl. On a very talented Rams team, he might. This trade is an interesting one if it was only a swap of quarterbacks but there’s so much more to it. 

Those draft picks. In addition to Goff, the Rams sent two first round picks and a third round pick to Detroit. That’s a load of draft cash. The Rams don’t have a first round pick this year. They’d already traded it away. The firsts given for Stafford are in 2022 and 2023. The Rams’ decision-makers have shown a fondness for trading first round picks. The last time they made a first round selection was in 2016 when they selected Goff. After trading Goff and picks, the Rams aren’t scheduled to make a selection in the first round until 2024. Here’s what they’ve done with their recent and coming first round picks:

2017: Rams traded this first-round pick as part of the package to move up and draft Jared Goff.

2018: Rams traded this first-round pick to acquire receiver Brandin Cooks from the Patriots.

2019: Rams traded this first-round pick to move down and acquire second- and third- round picks from the Falcons.

2020: Rams traded this first-round pick to acquire cornerback Jalen Ramsey from the Jaguars.

2021: Rams also traded this first-round pick for Ramsey. 

2022: Rams traded this first-round pick to acquire quarterback Matthew Stafford from the Lions.

2023: Rams also traded this first-round pick for Stafford. 

Maybe it’s fallout still felt from the Herschel Walker trade but as a Minnesota Vikings fan I’d lose my damn mind if Rick Spielman traded first round picks with such frequency. 

The Rams traded two 1s, two 2s, and two 3s to move up and get Goff in the draft. They traded two 1s, a 3, and Goff himself to replace to replace him. That doesn’t look very productive. The Rams were willing to give up so much because they felt stuck under Goff’s giant contract. They just gave it to him! I suppose Goff’s stock was high after a Super Bowl appearance but Sean McVay had to know by that point what he had in his quarterback. Form a pure talent and potential standpoint, he had to know. If he had reservations, as he obviously has now, they shouldn’t have given Goff that contract. As with the tendency to trade away first round picks the Rams are in a pattern of bailing on offensive playmakers soon after significant investments. Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, and now Goff. I just don’t get these changes of heart so soon after making a significant commitment. That goes for players as well as teams. If Stefon Diggs was so unhappy with he direction of the Vikings’ offense, why did he sign an extension in 2018? The offensive direction that he so disliked was already in place. If DeShaun Watson is so unhappy with Texans management now why did he sign an extension in September? I don’t get it. I know that things change but some of these changes happen so soon that it makes you wonder if the parties involved know what they’re doing at all. 

Anyway, the Rams got the better quarterback but they paid so much to get him. They paid a steep price for Stafford. They also paid a steep price to get away from Goff’s contract. Stafford’s contract isn’t small but it’s for two rather than four years. Former Green Bay Packers executive Andrew Brandt posted this unusual situation created by the trade. 

2021 Cap Charges

Lions:

Goff-$28 million

Stafford-$19 million

Rams:

Goff-$22 million

Stafford-$20 million

Both teams maintain significant cap commitments to a quarterback they no longer have. With so much cap space devoted to the position will either team be able to afford an actual backup?

Is it a win for both teams? If Stafford brings a Lombardi to Los Angeles in the coming two years and the Lions score with the draft picks and get some decent play from Goff, both teams will be very happy. New Lions general manager Brad Holmes was hired away from the Rams. In that sense, can he be considered part of the trade? The Rams got a third-round pick from the league when the Lions hired Holmes. The pressure is on Holmes to make the draft pick windfall work. He also has a working knowledge of what he’s getting in the Lions’ new quarterback. Right now, I like the Rams side of the trade. I’ve always considered Stafford one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league. He was just stuck with a poorly run organization. They fired the only coach, Jim Caldwell, that’s had any recent success. Well run teams don’t do that. The Lions are starting fresh. Goff is a talented quarterback. Whether he’s the starter for the short term or long term, the Lions can win with him. He quarterbacked a team to a Super Bowl only two years ago. If they hit on the draft picks, this trade could finally flip things in the right direction for Detroit. So, I guess that I like the trade for the Rams in the short term and the Lions in the long term. That tracks as that’s pretty much where each team finds themselves. 

It’s important to remember that this trade doesn’t become official until the start of the new league year on March 17. Either team can get cold feet and bolt. 

Super Bowl LV hasn’t been played and the 2021 offseason is over a month away and we already have some fireworks. Fun times.