This NFL offseason is expected to be one of quarterback movement. The first move happened over the weekend. It happened 1 1/2 months before the start of the offseason. The Detroit Lions traded Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams for Jared Goff, two fist round picks, and a third round pick. Two former #1 picks changed teams. The Lions will get the younger former #1 pick. The Rams will get the older former #1 pick. Over six years separate their ages. My immediate thought to the trade was “Wow, in an offseason of expected quarterback movement, two were moved in one trade.” I also immediately thought the Rams got much better at the game’s most important position. I’ve always been impressed by Matthew Stafford. Few quarterbacks in the league are his equal in pure quarterbacking talent. He was just stuck on some horrible football teams. No matter how bad those Lions teams were, Stafford often made them a difficult team to beat. Goff is capable of blindingly brilliant games. I think of the Thursday Night game against the Minnesota Vikings in 2018. He could do no wrong. I think of that wild Monday Night game against the Kansas City Chiefs. He led the Rams to the Super Bowl that season. Stafford never come close to a Super Bowl. On a very talented Rams team, he might. This trade is an interesting one if it was only a swap of quarterbacks but there’s so much more to it.
Those draft picks. In addition to Goff, the Rams sent two first round picks and a third round pick to Detroit. That’s a load of draft cash. The Rams don’t have a first round pick this year. They’d already traded it away. The firsts given for Stafford are in 2022 and 2023. The Rams’ decision-makers have shown a fondness for trading first round picks. The last time they made a first round selection was in 2016 when they selected Goff. After trading Goff and picks, the Rams aren’t scheduled to make a selection in the first round until 2024. Here’s what they’ve done with their recent and coming first round picks:
2017: Rams traded this first-round pick as part of the package to move up and draft Jared Goff.
2018: Rams traded this first-round pick to acquire receiver Brandin Cooks from the Patriots.
2019: Rams traded this first-round pick to move down and acquire second- and third- round picks from the Falcons.
2020: Rams traded this first-round pick to acquire cornerback Jalen Ramsey from the Jaguars.
2021: Rams also traded this first-round pick for Ramsey.
2022: Rams traded this first-round pick to acquire quarterback Matthew Stafford from the Lions.
2023: Rams also traded this first-round pick for Stafford.
Maybe it’s fallout still felt from the Herschel Walker trade but as a Minnesota Vikings fan I’d lose my damn mind if Rick Spielman traded first round picks with such frequency.
The Rams traded two 1s, two 2s, and two 3s to move up and get Goff in the draft. They traded two 1s, a 3, and Goff himself to replace to replace him. That doesn’t look very productive. The Rams were willing to give up so much because they felt stuck under Goff’s giant contract. They just gave it to him! I suppose Goff’s stock was high after a Super Bowl appearance but Sean McVay had to know by that point what he had in his quarterback. Form a pure talent and potential standpoint, he had to know. If he had reservations, as he obviously has now, they shouldn’t have given Goff that contract. As with the tendency to trade away first round picks the Rams are in a pattern of bailing on offensive playmakers soon after significant investments. Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, and now Goff. I just don’t get these changes of heart so soon after making a significant commitment. That goes for players as well as teams. If Stefon Diggs was so unhappy with he direction of the Vikings’ offense, why did he sign an extension in 2018? The offensive direction that he so disliked was already in place. If DeShaun Watson is so unhappy with Texans management now why did he sign an extension in September? I don’t get it. I know that things change but some of these changes happen so soon that it makes you wonder if the parties involved know what they’re doing at all.
Anyway, the Rams got the better quarterback but they paid so much to get him. They paid a steep price for Stafford. They also paid a steep price to get away from Goff’s contract. Stafford’s contract isn’t small but it’s for two rather than four years. Former Green Bay Packers executive Andrew Brandt posted this unusual situation created by the trade.
2021 Cap Charges
Lions:
Goff-$28 million
Stafford-$19 million
Rams:
Goff-$22 million
Stafford-$20 million
Both teams maintain significant cap commitments to a quarterback they no longer have. With so much cap space devoted to the position will either team be able to afford an actual backup?
Is it a win for both teams? If Stafford brings a Lombardi to Los Angeles in the coming two years and the Lions score with the draft picks and get some decent play from Goff, both teams will be very happy. New Lions general manager Brad Holmes was hired away from the Rams. In that sense, can he be considered part of the trade? The Rams got a third-round pick from the league when the Lions hired Holmes. The pressure is on Holmes to make the draft pick windfall work. He also has a working knowledge of what he’s getting in the Lions’ new quarterback. Right now, I like the Rams side of the trade. I’ve always considered Stafford one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league. He was just stuck with a poorly run organization. They fired the only coach, Jim Caldwell, that’s had any recent success. Well run teams don’t do that. The Lions are starting fresh. Goff is a talented quarterback. Whether he’s the starter for the short term or long term, the Lions can win with him. He quarterbacked a team to a Super Bowl only two years ago. If they hit on the draft picks, this trade could finally flip things in the right direction for Detroit. So, I guess that I like the trade for the Rams in the short term and the Lions in the long term. That tracks as that’s pretty much where each team finds themselves.
It’s important to remember that this trade doesn’t become official until the start of the new league year on March 17. Either team can get cold feet and bolt.
Super Bowl LV hasn’t been played and the 2021 offseason is over a month away and we already have some fireworks. Fun times.
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