Chris Simms’ Top-40 Quarterbacks

NBC Sports’ Chris Simms recently posted his Top 40 Quarterback Countdown. It’s an interesting list.

Chris Simms’ Top 40 Quarterback Countdown

1.   Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

2.   Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

3.   Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

4.   DeShaun Watson, Houston Texans

5.   Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

6.   Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

7.   Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

8.   Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

9.   Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

10. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

11. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

12. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans 

13. Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns 

14. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders 

15. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons 

16. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings 

17. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals 

18. Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts 

19. Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers 

20. Cam Newton, New England Patriots 

21. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers 

22. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers 

23. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Washington Football Team 

24. Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints 

25. Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints 

26. Daniel Jones, New York Giants 

27. Zach Wilson, New York Jets 

28. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars 

29. Andy Dalton, Chicago Bears

30. Mac Jones, New England Patriots 

31. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions 

32. Teddy Bridgewater, Denver Broncos 

33. Drew Lock, Denver Broncos 

34. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins 

35. Tyrod Taylor, Houston Texans 

36. Marcus Mariota, Las Vegas Raiders 

37. Kellen Mond, Minnesota Vikings

38. Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers 

39. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears 

40. Case Keenum, Cleveland Browns

***

Some thoughts:

Simms said that he had difficulty placing Josh Allen ahead of Aaron Rodgers. It isn’t difficult. Allen has a long way to go to be even the equal of Rodgers. Even if it’s about potential, Rodgers is the reigning MVP and he has the potential to win it again. Allen might one day be considered the greatest of all-time but he’s a long way from that day. 

Jared Goff was on top of his football world only a few years ago. He’d led his team to the Super Bowl. He had a big, new contract. He played for one of the most innovative offensive coaches in the league. Now, he’s #31 on Simms’ Top-40. Behind three rookies and Andy Dalton. And he’s in Detroit playing for Dan Campbell. 

Speaking of Detroit, it’s strange to see Matthew Stafford with the Los Angeles Rams.

Kyler Murray is fun. Right now, #7 feels a little high. I wouldn’t be surprised if it feels low after this season. I suppose that’s the point of Simms’ little list. It’s about potential. 

Non-first round picks:

Russell Wilson (3rd round)

Dak Prescott (4th)

Tom Brady (6th)

Derek Carr (2nd)

Kirk Cousins (4th)

Jimmy Garoppolo (2nd)

Ryan Fitzpatrick (7th)

Taysom Hill (Undrafted)

Andy Dalton (2nd)

Drew Lock (2nd)

Tyrod Taylor (6th)

Kellen Mond (3rd)

Case Keenum (Undrafted)

Nearly a third of Simms’ Top-40 was drafted after the first round. A couple weren’t drafted at all. 

Only six of the above 13 quarterbacks can be considered the unquestioned starter of their team.

Russell Wilson

Dak Prescott

Tom Brady

Derek Carr

Kirk Cousins

Ryan Fitzpatrick

So, 26 teams are going with a quarterback that was selected in the first round. 

Other than the Allen-Rodgers surprise there aren’t many surprises in Simms’ Top-10. I might not have Murray there yet but I can see the potential for it. 

As for Kirk Cousins, there are several quarterbacks just above him that I wouldn’t have above him. The biggest issue that I have with Cousins is his tendency to have one or two really bad games each season. His bad games can be really bad. Like, “how can this guy be in the league?” sort of bad. Fortunately, those games are few. They also seem to come early in the season. They often seem to come against the Chicago Bears. When Cousins is on, he can throw the ball as well as nearly any quarterback in the league. Sometimes, I wonder about his confidence. In particular, he appears to sometimes need to see his receiver come open. In the NFL, there usually isn’t time for such patience. There definitely isn’t time for that sort of patience behind the Vikings offensive line. Just when I start questioning his confidence, I see him make a series of truly “ballsy” throws. These are the sort of throws that are Mahomes- and Rodgers-like throws. Cousins is a puzzle. Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks of the Move the Sticks podcast often use the terms “trucks” and “trailers” to describe quarterbacks. “Trucks” carry their teams. They don’t need a load of talent around them. “Trailers” are often carried by their teams. They need a load of talent around them. Cousins often seems to fluctuate between the two. He’s been blessed with excellent receivers for nearly all of his professional career. DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garçon, Jamison Crowder, Jordan Reed, Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Justin Jefferson. I’ve also seen him do just fine with modestly talented receivers like Aldrick Robinson, Olabisi Johnson, and Maurice Harris. Unlike some of the elite quarterbacks of the league, Cousins can really be undone by his offensive line. He doesn’t have their ability to make something happen when everything in front of them breaks down. He can throw on the run. He looks great when the play calls for him to play on the move. It’s when the defense forces him to move that he starts having some issues. But defenses can mess with even the best quarterbacks. This past Super Bowl showed that even Mahomes can have issues when a street free agent-level offensive line is tasked with protecting him. If the Vikings can finally put a solid group of players in front of Cousins, we might see a quarterback worthy of of a Top-10 ranking in Simms’ Quarterback Countdown. He has the passing talent. 

I haven’t seen enough of Justin Herbert to warrant a ranking over Cousins. I haven’t seen anything from Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield, and Derek Carr to warrant a ranking over Cousins. As for Matt Ryan, I believe that he and Cousins are trending in opposite directions. 

Chris Simms was on the Kellon Mond bandwagon for nearly all of the draft evaluation process. It isn’t much of a surprise to see Mond ahead of first-round picks Trey Lance and Justin Fields. It could be another two years before we learn if the Vikings lucked into the steal of the 2021 NFL Draft. It’d be nice to see the Vikings finally have a little luck with the quarterback position.