Wednesday, February 12, 2020

Minnesota Vikings Draft Stuff

The Minnesota Vikings season ended three weeks too soon. The Super Bowl is over. It's the NFL's offseason. The new league year doesn't officially start until March 18 but it's the offseason. The Vikings have reconstructed their coaching staff. Now it's time to rebuild the roster. They are in a salary cap bind so they won't be able to buy their issues away. The Draft will be the path to the roster rebuild. It should be the path even when they're flush with cash. Making a splash free agency is always fun but history has shown that it's not the best way to build an NFL roster. Besides, the draft is far more fun. That's why maniacs have been doing mock drafts for this draft since the last draft ended. With compensatory picks still to be determined, the Vikings could have as many as 10 picks in the April 23-25 Draft. That's just to start. General manager Rick Spielman has a tendency to move around in the draft. Here's an early look at some Minnesota Vikings draft stuff.

The Picks. Current and projected.

1. #25 overall
2. #57 overall
3. #89 overall
4. TBD (picks in rounds 4-7 will be affected by the Compensatory picks)
4. TBD (projected Compensatory pick for loss of Sheldon Richardson)
6. TBD
7. TBD (acquired from Dolphins for Danny Isidora)
7. TBD
7. TBD (projected Compensatory pick for loss of Tom Compton)
7. TBD (projected Compensatory pick for loss of Trevor Siemian)

The Vikings traded their fifth round pick to the Ravens for kicker Kaare Vedvik. It seemed like the right thing to do at the time.

The Needs.

1. offensive line
2. cornerback
3. 3-technique

Free agency re-signings/signings could change those needs but the Vikings don't really have the cap space to change them significantly.

Offensive Line
The offensive line has been an annual top need for so long. The rookie seasons of guard Dru Samia and tackle Oli Udoh were redshirt seasons. The hope here is that Samia will be able to step into a starting role this season. If Pat Elflein doesn't make a huge jump this offseason his three-year run as a Vikings starter (2 at center, 1 at left guard) is likely over. Udoh was drafted in the sixth as a raw, small school project with intriguing size and talent. In very limited snaps as a rookie he looked promising. He actually looked more promising than Samia in those limited snaps. In a perfect world, Samia and Udoh are ready to step in this season and become franchise cornerstones on the offensive line for a long time.  Udoh, in particular, is intriguing. In preseason games and the Week 17 "preseason" game against the Bears, he often made defenders disappear. He has mammoth size (6'5" 325 lbs) and he appears to move well despite that size. He also seems to play a little angry. The Vikings could use a little angry on the offensive line. The biggest question is whether he can move well enough to fit the Vikings zone blocking scheme. He's such an intriguing football player. The offensive line must improve. The defensive line of the Bears, Packers, and 49ers destroyed them in the biggest games of the season. That can't happen again if the Vikings have hopes of making it past the divisional round of the playoffs. The offensive line must get better. Right tackle Brian O'Neill has improved considerably in his two seasons. He looks like he will be a very good, at least, player for a long time. Center Garrett Bradbury had some rookie struggles but he often flashed the ability that made him a first round pick. Riley Reiff is an average left tackle in the latter years of his career. There's been chatter that he could move to guard. I'm not sold on that. I'd rather see the line get better and younger. O'Neill and Bradbury are the only offensive linemen on the roster that can be considered foundation players. I hope that Samia joins them this year. He has the talent to make an impact at one of the guard spots. Veteran Josh Kline has a couple more years as a reliable starter at the other guard spot. I think that Udoh has potential. At present, it's only potential. If he emerges, it's probably at right tackle. In that case, perhaps O'Neill can move to left tackle. But the Vikings aren't in a position to plan on a raw, intriguing, mammoth tackle emerging as an impact starter at tackle in his second season. The Vikings need to improve the offensive line with a player more ready to start immediately. That sort of tackle is found in the first round. If he can develop the reaction/quickness for reach blocks and getting to the second level, maybe Udoh can eventually bump inside to guard and replace Kline in a year or two. Who knows? Maybe with the addition of a nice left tackle in the draft the Vikings have their five cornerstone linemen for as long as they can keep them.

Cornerback
Cornerback has been a team strength for a few years. Head coach Mike Zimmer has emphasized the position. So has the team's drafts. Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, and Mackensie Alexander have been the top trio for a few years. Waynes and Alexander are on track to be free agents. The Vikings cap situation makes it challenge to re-sign Waynes or Alexander, let alone both. Rhodes could be a cap casualty. 2020 could be a complete overhaul of the cornerback position in Minnesota. If Waynes, Alexander, and Rhodes all depart Minnesota, the top of the cornerback depth chart could look like this:

Mike Hughes
Holton Hill
Kris Boyd

Despite being an oft-injured first round pick, an undrafted free agent, and a seventh-round pick, I kinda like this trio. There was something missing from the Vikings corners last season. Perhaps a hungry group of talented cornerbacks with something to prove is just what this team needs. Mike Hughes is a former first round pick with loads of talent. He just has to stay healthy. If injuries hadn't derailed each of his first two seasons he might've wrestled a starting spot away from Rhodes, Waynes, or Alexander. Hughes just has to stay on the field and one side of the Vikings defensive backfield will be fine. Holton Hill showed raw talent and a lot of potential as an undrafted rookie in 2018. Injuries forced him into the starting lineup against the Saints that season and he looked the part. A couple of suspensions cost him half of the 2019 season. If he can rid himself of the off-field demons that wrecked his draft prospects and his second season, he could develop into an impact player. Kris Boyd developed through his rookie season into a standout player on special teams. He also held up when given opportunities on defense. That isn't glowing praise but he showed some abilities that could be molded into a solid NFL corner. Perhaps even better. Hughes alternated at times with Alexander at nickel. He's the team's top corner moving forward so I'm guessing that he now has a full-time spot on the outside. With the potential contractual departures, I'm projecting Hill as the starter on the other side. Boyd could be next man up at nickel. A darkhorse contender for the role is CFL export Marcus Sayles. His size (5'10" 180lbs) and play remind me of Antoine Winfield. That's a wild comparison as Winfield is one of the best corners in franchise history and one of the best nickel corners I've ever seen. But there are some similarities to his game. Maybe, just maybe, Sayles has a football career trajectory similar to that of Cameron Wake. There's a beautiful dream. Anyway, I actually feel pretty good about the Vikings corners. Part of that is because I like the potential of the players that are sure to be on the roster. The other part of that is a trust in Zimmer getting the best out of those players. Still, cornerback is a need. A lot of things have to go right for my hopeful projections to become reality. Hughes has to stay healthy. Hill has to stay out of trouble. Boyd has to develop. Sayles is a CFL export that has done nothing in the NFL.

3-technique
The 3-technique defensive tackle position is very important in Zimmer's defense. It's very important in every 4-3 defense. Despite that importance, Zimmer has rarely had an impact player at the position in his six years as the Vikings head coach. Sharrif Floyd was supposed to be that player. A freak accident during surgery sadly ruined his NFL career. Sheldon Richardson was terrific for one season but they couldn't afford to keep him. Shamar Stephen played the position last season. He's excellent against the run but doesn't create much havoc as a pass rusher. Jaleel Johnson can do a bit of both but needs to both more often. Jalyn Holmes has a little more pass rusher in him but might not be as strong in run support. Hercules Mata'afa is more of a situational pass rusher. The player that I really like for the 3-technique spot is Armon Watts. He really started to shine at the end of last season. But I think that the coaches see him as a nose tackle. Perhaps it's due to their respective sizes but I like Johnson as the eventual replacement to Linval Joseph at nose and Watts at 3-technique. The more I think about the players that the Vikings have at defensive tackle the less I think that the position is one of the team's top needs. The 3-technique position can make such an impact and Zimmer has so rarely had a player at the position that can completely disrupt the offense. If that sort of player (Javon Kinlaw!) falls into their lap at 25, they grab him. Personally, I think that Watts can be dynamite at the position. But I'm just sitting in a chair viewing from a distance.

Other team needs:
1. Receiver
2. Safety

Receiver
The Vikings could use a third receiver that can take some of the obvious passing down pressure off of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. Olabisi Johnson was a nice surprise as a rookie. He has a future with the team. The Vikings need a receiver that can beat coverage with some explosive abilities or one that can beat it with a size/strength advantage. A receiver with both attributes would be nice but those are hard to find. The third receiver need is lessened a bit by the immense potential of tight end Irv Smith Jr. His rookie season was just a slight taste of what he might be able to do. He has the talent to tilt the field. It'd be nice if the Vikings can add an explosive receiver in the draft, one that can return kicks as well.

Safety
Much of what the Vikings can do in free agency begins with what they do with Anthony Harris. He's developed into one of the top safeties in the league. He's also set to become a free agent on March 18. If the Vikings re-sign him, it'll take a deal that makes him one of the highest paid safeties in the league. He and Harrison Smith would be one of the top safety duos in the league. The team would only need to add depth behind them. If they Vikings don't re-sign Harris, Harrison Smith will be the only safety with a contract that puts him on the roster in 2020. The position then becomes one of the team's biggest draft needs.

Those are the needs of the Vikings as I currently see them. The team doesn't have the cap room to seriously address those needs in free agency. I really like some of the young players that are in position to see more playing time (especially Mike Hughes and Armon Watts) but their impact is all just hopeful projections at this point. Very hopeful.

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