Monday, November 14, 2016

Week 10 Thoughts

The Minnesota Vikings haven't won a game since the ninth of October. That was when they stomped the Houston Texans. Those were happy days. They were sitting pretty at 5-0. That was a long time ago.

The Washington Redskins handed the Vikings their fourth straight loss yesterday. 26-20.

There are a few things that are preventing the Vikings from getting their sixth win. The most significant is probably their inability to convert on short yardage. If they could gain a single yard (sometimes much less) when they absolutely have to gain a single yard (sometimes much less) three of their losses might be wins. The Vikings first touchdown was about a two-inch run by Matt Asiata. It was on a third-and-goal. That was two plays after they had a first-and-goal from about six inches. So, it took three runs to gain those six inches. It's great that they scored but the difficulty they had in doing so is a real problem. The Vikings short yardage issues were a problem in the second half. Their two possessions in the third quarter ended because they couldn't gain a yard. Every three-and-out basically gifts a possession to the opponent. Is it as bad as a turnover? No, but it's the same lack of offensive success. Most teams look at converting a 3rd-and-one as a given. It's anything but for the Vikings. Is it play-calling? Maybe, but NFL teams should be able to gain a single yard when they absolutely have to gain it. It's gotten to the point where Vikings offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur should approach every short yardage as if it isn't. Call a play that's designed to gain five yards because they have a real hard time succeeding with plays that are designed to gain one. Much of the Vikings short yardage problems rest with the offensive line. They are getting no push. I'm no expert on the nuances of offensive line play but I do know that a lot of it is about attitude, wanting the point-of-attack more, aggression, and confidence. Confidence could be the key. The Vikings have none right now. And the defenses in front of them have a ton.

Among the other Vikings issues is injuries. It started with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater before the season even started. It continued with running back Adrian Peterson, left tackle Matt Kalil, and right tackle Andre Smith early in the season. Nickel corner Captain Munnerlyn didn't play yesterday. This was big as Jamison Crowder is one of the more dangerous slot receivers in the league. This forced left corner Terence Newman to nickel and Trae Waynes to left corner. One injury impacted two positions. Unfortunately, the Vikings corner situation was made even worse when right corner Xavier Rhodes. His starry-eyed look as he left the field seemed to indicate a concussion. That put rookie Mackensie Alexander on the field and Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins took advantage of him on a couple of occasions. Middle linebacker Eric Kendricks left the game in the first quarter with a hip injury. The worst injury moving forward for the Vikings was the one to left tackle Jake Long. It was one on their second to last offensive snap of the game. It looked like his ankle did something it's not physically supposed to do. He was taken off the field on a cart. Early reports are that he suffered a torn achilles. A shaky offensive line just got a lot more shaky. Long was signed just before the Vikings Week 6 bye. He had a couple of rough games but has steadily improved the last two weeks. Jeremiah Sirles replaced Long for the Vikings last, desperate offensive play and Preston Smith zipped right by him to sack Sam Bradford. Game over.

Blair Walsh continuing to miss kicks isn't doing the Vikings any favors but his missed extra point yesterday ended up having no impact.

Sam Bradford had a good game. He might have had a great game if the offense could convert those nasty short yardage situations. 31/40 for 307 yards and two touchdowns. He's done some real good things for the offense but he absolutely can not take some of the sacks that he takes. The Vikings were in decent shape to pull out a much-needed 27-26 win. Down 26-20, second-and-10 from the Redskins 21-yard line with the clock stopped at 40 seconds. They had no timeouts but the clock was their friend. They had enough to time to do some things but they absolutely could not afford to take a sack. What happened? Bradford took a sack. He had enough to time to throw the ball away and he had to do just that. He didn't and that sweet situation turned sour. Third-and-17 with a running clock. It simply spiraled down from there. A holding penalty (declined), Long's injury, another sack and the Vikings had their fourth straight loss.

The Redskins really have some nice weapons on offense. And DeSean Jackson didn't even play in this game. When quarterback Kirk Cousins is on, and he was on yesterday, he simply moves his team up and down the field with ease because he was players that can beat one-on-one matchups everywhere. I'd like to have seen what would happen against the Vikings full compliment of corners but that's football. You only have to go against the players that are on the field. Jamison Crowder is just scratching the surface of NFL stardom. Tight ends Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis are nightmare match-ups. Davis couldn't catch a cold last year with the San Francisco 49ers and Denver Broncos but he's turned back the clock with the Redskins. Undrafted rookie running back Robert "Fat" Kelley is a tough runner. He was just short of 100 yards yesterday and most of that was gained after contact. Chris Thompson adds a nice change of pace to Kelley's bowling ball ways.

The Redskins offensive efficiency might be best summed up in a single statistic. When the Vikings forced a three-and-out punt in the second quarter it was the Redskins ninth three-and-out of the season. That's only one per game. The Vikings probably reach that total in three games.

Ryan Kerrigan and Josh Norman get most of the attention on the Redskins defense. Preston Smith should join them soon. If he hasn't already. He was terrific yesterday. His two biggest plays were two of the biggest reasons for the Redskins win. The Vikings offense finally showed some life in the second half with about nine minutes to play in the fourth quarter. Bradford crisply moved the offense to the Redskins 39-yard line. The Vikings looked like they were moving to at least a tying field goal and hopefully a go-ahead touchdown. Smith ended that when he intercepted Bradford. An interception that he returned to the Vikings 42-yard line. It was clear that Bradford expected Smith to rush off the edge. Smith didn't. He drifted back into the passing lane that Bradford assumed would be clear. He also had the sack on the Vikings last offensive play of the game.

Vikings receiver Stefon Diggs had a real nice game. 13 catches for 164 yards. It was his second straight game with 13 catches. If the whole team attacked the game like Diggs has the last two weeks the Vikings losing streak would have ended two weeks ago.

As dreadful and depressing as this four-game losing streak has been it's surprising and nice that the Vikings are tied with the Detroit Lions for first in the NFC North. And they play the Lions on Thanksgiving. Being tied for first now doesn't mean a thing if they can't pull themselves out of this free-fall. They have to find a way to run the ball. In finding that they have to convert on short yardage. They have to get players healthy and they have to stay healthy. The Vikings absolutely can not afford to lose any more players. And that was before they lost Jake Long.

***

There were some other NFL games yesterday.

A bye week didn't do the Chicago Bears any good. Jay Cutler returned to the lineup on Halloween night and the whole team looked like a new team against the Vikings. The Bears doubled their win total on the season with that single win. They looked like the old Bears against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers yesterday. A 36-10 loss. And the Bears lone touchdown was a converted hail mary at the end of the first half.

The Kansas City Chiefs just keep doing what it takes to win games. The surging Carolina Panthers were all over them early. 17-3 at the half. The Chiefs scored 17 points in the fourth quarter to win. 20-17. Kansas City is now an impressive 7-2. The talking heads in the media keep saying that the Chiefs are doing this under-the-radar. There's nothing under-the-radar about the Chiefs. At least not around the NFL.

If I had a vote for Coach of the Year (and I should) my vote would go to Chiefs head coach Andy Reid. No other team is doing so many things right through nine games.

One team that's been on everybody's radar lately is the Atlanta Falcons. They are nowhere near as complete as the Chiefs but their flashy offense has everyone drooling and/or talking. The Philadelphia Eagles clipped the wings of the high-flying Falcons. 24-15.

It doesn't make up for the Minnesota's month-long stumble but Vikings fans have to be thrilled with the consistent struggles of the Green Bay Packers. Those struggles hit a peak against the Tennessee Titans yesterday. 47-25 Titans. The Packers are now 4-5. Lost in the Packers issues is the Titans improved play. At 5-5 they might be the team to watch in the AFC South.

The Houston Texans still lead the AFC South with a sparkling 6-3 record. One of the stunning developments in the NFL this season is how the Texans managed to win six games. Playing the Jacksonville Jaguars helps the win total. The Texans took care of the Jaguars 24-21.

The New Orleans Saints were gradually pulling themselves out of an early-season hole. In a high-scoring, free-wheeling game the Saints can probably shoot it out with the best. In a more controlled game they struggle a little. They experienced a more controlled game yesterday against the defensive Denver Broncos. 25-23.

The offensively inept Los Angeles Rams and New York Jets played a scorcher. 9-6 Rams.

The Miami Dolphins continued their roll with a 31-24 win over the San Diego Chargers. The Dolphins have now won four straight after a 1-4 start to the season. The Chargers entered the game as the greatest 4-5 team in league history. That's more exaggeration than fact but the Chargers have been one of the better teams in the league despite their losing record. They just seem to find new ways to let games slip out of their grasp at the end. Their new way to lose this time was a Dolphins interception return for a touchdown with a minute to play. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers had his team in position to break a 24-24 tie. Kiko Alonso's 60-yard interception return flipped that script.

The San Francisco 49ers threw a scare into the Arizona Cardinals. 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick's 4-yard touchdown run tied the score at 20 with just under two minutes to play. That was enough time for the Cardinals to drive to the 49ers 16-yard line. Chandler Cantazaro hit the game-winning 34-yard field goal as time expired.

Four Cardinals turnovers helped keep this game close. Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer had three of the turnovers. A fumble and two interceptions. The 49ers converted two of those turnovers into 10 points. Other than the three turnovers Palmer was great. It helps having Larry Fitzgerald on the receiving end of the throws. Fitzgerald is still one of the best. 12 catches for 133 yards. Many of those of the crucial, chain-moving variety.

One of the games of the week was the Dallas Cowboys-Pittsburgh Steelers dual. The Cowboys won a very entertaining game 35-30. The game-sealing score came on 32-yard Ezekiel Elliott burst with nine seconds to play. It was his second touchdown run in the final two minutes of the game.

This game was entertaining because of the supremely talented playmakers that took part in it. Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown for the Steelers. Ezekiel Elliott, Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant for the Cowboys. Most include rookie quarterback Dak Prescott among the Cowboys supremely talented playmakers but I'm not there yet. I agree that he's been great but Elliott and the Cowboys fantastic offensive line make things so easy for him. Former Vikings quarterback, and current 49ers backup, Christian Ponder often looked terrific when the pocket was clean. The pocket is nearly always clean for Prescott. He has easy reads and has a lot of time to make them. Prescott has been great but the current Cowboys offensive situation is ideal for a quarterback, even a 4th-round rookie quarterback, to be great.

Elliott was fantastic. Again. His splashiest play was a little screen pass that he turned into an 83-yard touchdown. It didn't look like a single Steeler defender touched him. That shouldn't come as a surprise as he's often not touched much when he has the ball in his hands. The offensive line has a great deal to do with that. Elliott is routinely five yards past the line of scrimmage before he experiences an opponent. The Steelers defense actually did a decent job against Elliot's runs. At least they did until those two, late touchdown bursts. He finished the game with 114 yards on 21 carries. The 46 yards on the touchdown runs were 40% of the total. Including his substantial contributions in the passing game Elliott had 209 yards from scrimmage.

It feels like Cowboys tight end Jason Witten has been playing forever. He still makes so many big plays. If the Cowboys need a first down. He gets a first down. He's a game-changer and a chain-mover.

The other game of the week was the night cap. Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots. It was a back and forth affair. This terrific game was ultimately decided when the Seahawks defense kept the Patriots offense out of the end zone on four tries from inside the two-yard line. All four plays came in the final 43 seconds. A thriller! 31-24 Seahawks.

Nearly all of the statistics were even. The one that wasn't was the difference. The Seahawks took the ball from the Patriots twice. The second of those turnovers led to the Seahawks game-winning touchdown. The Patriots never took it from the Seahawks.

It's no real stretch to say that the Seahawks were lucky to enter this game with a shimmering 5-2-1 record. The tie and at least a couple of the wins could easily have been losses. In their very strong run under Pete Carroll the Seahawks have been notorious for starting seasons slow. This is about the time in the season that they start rolling and this is the sort of game that gets them started. The fact that they stumbled to this point in the season with a 5-2-1 record is a little scary.

The New York Giants host the Cincinnati Bengals tonight to close Week 10.






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