When the Denver Broncos visit the New York Jets this Sunday, Peyton Manning could pass Brett Favre as the NFL's all-time leader in touchdown passes. It would take a mighty fine passing day from Manning but he's had many of those. It wouldn't even take his best day to pass Favre. Manning, with 503 career touchdown passes, is five behind Favre's 508. This week, next week, the career touchdown passes record should belong to Peyton Manning soon.
I remember when Minnesota Vikings quarterback Fran Tarkenton broke the career touchdown passes record. It was a snowy day in Buffalo against the Bills on December 20, 1975. It was a game filled with records. O.J. Simpson scored his 23rd touchdown of the season that day. Chuck Foreman scored his 22nd. The two running backs were in a race for the season touchdown record. Tarkenton threw his 290th and 291st touchdown passes of his career that day. Both went to Foreman. The career touchdown passes record had belonged to Johnny Unitas at 290. Unitas had held the record since he took it from Y.A. Tittle in 1966.
In my lifetime, the career touchdown passes record has passed from Y.A. Tittle to Johnny Unitas to Fran Tarkenton to Dan Marino to Brett Favre. Peyton Manning should grab it soon. Tittle held the record for four years after wrestling it away from Bobby Layne during the 1962 season. Both Layne and Tittle had passed Sammy Baugh that year. Unitas held the record for nine years until Tarkenton broke it on that snowy day in Buffalo. Tarkenton retired with 342 career touchdown passes. Tarkenton held that record for a while. He may have held it longer than anyone has ever held it. No one really challenged it. Dan Fouts might have if Don Coryell had landed in San Diego about five years earlier. The incredible 1983 NFL Draft provided some worthy challengers in John Elway, Jim Kelly, and Dan Marino. It was Marino that would finally catch Tarkenton. That day finally came twenty years after that snowy day in Buffalo. Marino retired with 420 career touchdown passes. That held until Favre threw his 421st touchdown to Greg Jennings against the Vikings. I remember that game well. Favre would throw his 508th and last touchdown as a member of the Vikings. I also remember that game well. Favre probably doesn't.
When Fran Tarkenton threw his 291st career touchdown pass in that Buffalo snowstorm the NFL's career touchdown pass leader-board looked something like this:
1. 291 Fran Tarkenton
2. 290 Johnny Unitas
3. 255 Sonny Jurgensen
4. 242 Y.A. Tittle
5. 239 Len Dawson
6. 237 John Hadl
7. 236 George Blanda
8. 214 John Brodie
9. 199 Roman Gabriel
10. 196 Norm Snead
10. 196 Bobby Layne
Today the top-10 list looks like this:
1. 508 Brett Favre
2. 503 Peyton Manning
3. 420 Dan Marino
4. 372 Drew Brees
5. 365 Tom Brady
6. 342 Fran Tarkenton
7. 300 John Elway
8. 291 Warren Moon
9. 290 Johnny Unitas
10. 275 Vinny Testaverde
Warren Moon likely would have posed a threat to Marino's record, before Favre, if he hadn't been banished to the Canadian Football League for five years due to the color of his skin.
Drew Brees is the one quarterback that could threaten whatever number Manning has when he retires. A lot has to break Brees' way for that to happen. One, Manning has to retire soon. Two, Brees probably has to play at least three years past Manning's retirement to make up the current 129 touchdown pass difference. That's nearly 40 touchdowns per season. Brees is three years younger than Manning and looks to be going strong so it's possible but the guess here is that the chances are slim. It's the young guns like Andrew Luck that have the best chance to catch Manning. Or, maybe Manning holds the record as long as Tarkenton.
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