Monday, November 20, 2017

Week 11 Thoughts

The Minnesota Vikings hosted the Los Angeles Rams yesterday in a battle of 7-2 teams. The Rams offense opened the game doing what they've been doing most of this season to take a 7-0 lead. The Vikings defense spent the rest of the game doing what they've doing most of the season to take a 24-7 win.

This game was billed by most of the talking heads as a Rams offense vs Vikings defense affair. That was the focus of nearly every analysis. This Vikings win was more about a win in all phases. The Vikings won on offense, defense, and special teams. Perhaps that was best seen in a sequence that led to the Vikings first score:

A nice Ryan Quigley punt, combined with nice coverage, pinned the Rams on their own 10-yard line.
Then the defense took over.
-Todd Gurley stopped for no gain
-Jared Goff throws incomplete
-Goff sacked by Danielle Hunter at the one-yard line.
-Punt
Marcus Sherels returned the short punt to the Rams 35-yard line. A penalty moved the ball to the 30-yard line.
Then the offense took over with a seven-play, 30-yard drive that ended with an eight-yard touchdown run by Latavius Murray.

A nice punt, fine defensive stand, opportunistic punt return, and efficient offense combined to tie the score at 7-7.

As nice as it is to credit all phases of the game, the Vikings defense was the biggest reason for the win. The Rams offense entered this game doing things that brought comparisons to those fantastic Rams offenses of Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce, Tory Holt, and friends. Todd Gurley has been playing at an MVP pace. Jared Goff and his collection of receivers have been hot. This is a very good, diverse offense led by one of the most innovative play-callers in head coach Sean McVay. The versatility and efficiency showed on that first drive. The Vikings defense responded by keeping the Rams out of the end zone the remaining 55 minutes. The Rams had three drives of note. That first one that ended in their lone touchdown. The second drive of note started with just under eight minutes to play in the second quarter at the Rams 38-yard line. It ended at the Vikings one-yard line when Anthony Harris forced and recovered a Cooper Kupp fumble. This play by Harris was the play of the game. Who knows where this game would've gone if the Rams had scored at that point. The third Rams drive of note was their final one. That drive ended with rookie defensive end Tashawn Bower's first career sack on 4th down. That ended the Rams offensive day at the Vikings 21-yard line with 10 seconds to play.

The Rams gained 185 yards on their three drives of note. They gained 69 yards on the seven possessions that weren't so noteworthy (one possession was a kneel-down that ended the first half). Before their final drive of the game, the Rams ran 16 plays on four possessions in the second half. Four possessions that ended with four punts. Two were three-and-outs. For the game, the Rams offense converted three of 11 third downs.

After the first drive, Todd Gurley gained 17 yards on 11 carries.

The Vikings offense did their part. Especially in the second half. They gained 454 yards for the game. 288 of those yards were gained in the second half.

Some team numbers:

Time of Possession
Vikings 37:22
Rams 22:38

Rushing
Vikings 171
Rams 45

Passing
Vikings 280
Rams 209

Adam Thielen!

Vikings receiver Adam Thielen keeps making plays. His 65-yard catch and run (mostly run) for a fourth quarter touchdown pretty much sealed the game. That made it 21-7 with just over ten minutes to play. Thielen finished the game with six catches for 123 yards and that long touchdown. He's caught at least five passes in every game this season.

The most impressive drive by the Vikings might've been the one the one that followed Thielen's long touchdown. The Vikings milked nearly six of the final eight minutes of the game on a 12-play 64-yard drive that ended with a 39-yard field goal by Kai Forbath. They simply took the game from the Rams.

Speaking of Forbath. He missed two field goals (from 48 and 39 yards) before he made the game-clencher. The second miss came with just over six minutes to play in the third quarter. With a 7-7 game, those misses felt huge. They feel less huge after a 24-7 win. It often feels like the Vikings rely on too many field goals and it's always frustrating to rely on field goals. If a team is going to rely on too many field goals the kick has to make them. Fortunately for Forbath, and the Vikings, those misses weren't a factor in this game. The Vikings have had far too many kicking issues in recent years. They don't need one now.

The Vikings have had some nice success with screen passes this season. It looks like teams have gotten wise to those plays. The Rams certainly were. Twice the Vikings attempted screens with Jerick McKinnon. Twice the Rams blew up those attempts for significant losses. Making things even worse those losses were either preceded or followed by a penalty. Both wrecked scoring opportunities. On both plays, center Pat Elflein was close to making the block that might've sprung McKinnon. The Vikings either need to shore up the timing on the play or put it on another burner for a while.

Case Keenum!

How can I get this far without mentioning Case Keenum? He's a big reason for seven of the Vikings eight wins. He was a big reason for their win against his former team yesterday. He's been so solid and efficient. He hasn't made mistakes but he's been much more than a game manager, as many in his position are automatically labeled.  Perhaps what he did best yesterday was keep plays alive. This was the sixth game in which he hasn't been sacked. The Rams applied decent pressure but Keenum kept active in the pocket and made plays on the move. He's considered a placeholder for Teddy Bridgewater but he's made that move a very tough move to make. As Keenum said after the game, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."

In goal line situations this year the Vikings have often lined up with multiple tight ends and presnap "jet-sweep" motion from McKinnon. They've run at least five different plays out of this look and, if I recall correctly, each has been successful. Defenses seem to be having some difficulties with this due to the variety of plays run out of it.

Vikings that entered the NFL without being drafted:
Case Keenum, QB
Adam Thielen, WR
C.J. Ham, FB
Nick Easton, C
Rashod Hill, T
Tom Johnson, DT
Tashawn Bower, DE
Anthony Harris, S
Each made significant contributions to this win.

The Vikings have a short turnaround this week. They travel to Detroit for a Thanksgiving dance. At 8-2, the Vikings hold a two-game lead over the Lions in the NFC North. The Lions have been an extreme nuisance the past two years. They keep finding new and strange ways to win. It's something that has to stop.

***

The New Orleans Saints have been on fire since opening the season with losses to the Vikings and New England Patriots. Eight straight wins. It looked like that streak would end yesterday against the Washington Redskins. Tied at 31 with about 30 seconds to play, the Redskins were driving to a potential game-winning field goal. That changed when Kirk Cousins was called for intentional grounding when he took the snap and quickly fired the ball about 10 yards upfield and out of bounds. I suppose that it was the right call seeing as there was no Redskins receiver lined up on that side of the field. There was certainly no Redskins receiver near the sideline. I don't like this penalty because the officials are making assumptions on intent. Perhaps Cousins thought there was supposed to be a receiver over there somewhere. I've seen many plays in which the quarterback was making a much more obvious attempt to avoid a loss and wasn't called for grounding. Due to the time left in the game this penalty included a 10-second runoff as well as the loss of down and yardage. It was a costly mistake by Cousins and killed any shot of winning a game in regulation that they would end up losing in overtime. 

The Saints are still on fire. But they got lucky in this one due to a very kind, and suspect, rule interpretation. 

The Redskins-Saints game was one of a few among the day's early games that looked like they were headed to surprising results. The Chicago Bears gave the Detroit Lions all that they could handle. The difference in the 27-24 Lions win was that the Lions made their late, long field goal and the Bears missed their attempt. The Cleveland Browns threw a scare into the Jacksonville Jaguars. Nine fourth quarter points, six of which was a late defensive score, made the 19-7 win a little less close than it was. While those games went to the favorites there was one that didn't. 

In the days leading up to the Week 11 games many in the media honked about the post-bye success of Andy Reid. He had two weeks to prepare his Kansas City Chiefs players for their game against the recently punchless New York Giants. Those punchless Giants won a field goal duel with an overtime field goal, 12-9 punchless Giants.

The Chiefs started the season 5-0. They are now 6-4. They are real lucky that no other team in the AFC West has a winning record. 

Several of the day's other games were one-sided affairs.

Baltimore Ravens 23
Green Bay Packers 0

Los Angeles Chargers 54
Buffalo Bills 24
At 4-6, and two games behind the Chiefs, the Chargers might be the best team in the AFC West.

New England Patriots 33
Oakland Raiders 8
So much for that preseason prediction that this could be an AFC Championship game preview.

Philadelphia Eagles 37
Dallas Cowboys 9
The Cowboys led 9-7 at the half. The Eagles rolled in the second half.

Tonight we have an NFC scorcher, Atlanta Falcons-Seattle Seahawks.



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