Saturday, April 12, 2014

Puzzling Draft

Most years, by the time that we are a month out from the NFL Draft, I've narrowed down my hopes for the Minnesota Vikings' first selection to one, maybe two players. My hopes have occasionally become reality. Chris Hovan in 2000. Bryant McKinnie in 2002. Troy Williamson in 2005. Chad Greenway in 2006. Tyrell Johnson in 2008. Percy Harvin in 2009. Matt Kalil and Harrison Smith in 2012. Xavier Rhodes in 2013. I wish that I was wrong in 2005 and 2008. If I don't set my hopes on the right player, I usually have the right position. In 2001, I was hoping for Deuce McCalister and the Vikings selected Michael Bennett. In 2004, I was hoping for Will Smith and the Vikings selected Kenechi Udeze. In both instances, the New Orleans selected MY player one spot before the Vikings were on the clock. In 2003, it was the New York Jets that selected MY player before the Vikings had a shot at him. The Jets picked Dewayne Robertson and the Vikings picked Kevin Williams. I'm so glad that it fell that way. In 2010, The Vikings selected Chris Cook at the top of the second round. My hope was Kyle Wilson. Again, it was the Jets that got to MY player first. Wilson was picked at the bottom of the first round. In 2011, I was hoping, really hoping, for Jake Locker. The Vikings got Christian Ponder. Since 2000, I was way off with the pick only in 2007. I had my sites set on LaRon Landry. Who knew that Adrian Peterson would still be available at #7? Something like that happening can change a lot of draft plans. I had hopes, dreams, for Peterson or Calvin Johnson but the possibility of either one still being on the board for the Vikings was simply impossible.

I don't have a clue as to what I'd like to see the Vikings do for the 2014 NFL Draft. This draft is an absolute puzzle to me. We still have a month but I have so many possibilities, possibilities that change daily, passing through my head. It keeps me awake some nights. This next month can't pass fast enough. If there was a perfect year to move the draft back two weeks, this isn't it. I actually do hope that the Vikings can draft Buffalo linebacker Kahlil Mack. That would be Hope #1. Adrian Peterson in 2007 and Randy Moss in 1998 being available for the Vikings are the biggest draft surprises of my lifetime. Mack falling to #8 would match those two draft day miracles. In January, I thought that Mack could be there. Now, I don't think that he makes it to #5. So, I've tearfully removed Kahlil Mack from my hope list.

The biggest needs for the Minnesota Vikings are finding a franchise quarterback and improving the defense. The re-signing of Matt Cassel eases the need to draft a quarterback that has to start this year. That's a good thing. Despite the chaotic season that the Vikings had at quarterback last year, it was the defense that really torpedoed the season. They couldn't get offenses off of the field on third down. They couldn't keep offenses out of the end zone. That's very bad defensive football. The Vikings made some defensive strides simply by hiring Mike Zimmer as their new head coach. They made further strides in free agency with the re-signing of defensive end Everson Griffen and the signing of defensive tackle Linval Joseph, corner Captain Munnerlyn, and defensive end Corey Wootton. There's still plenty of room for more help from the draft. The draft is all about finding the best value with each pick. Since there are no heart-stopping quarterback talents, like Andrew Luck, at the top of this draft, most feel that the best value at quarterback is found beyond the first round. That thought could make one or two of the supposed top three quarterbacks (Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, or Johnny Manziel) available when the Vikings pick at #8. With today's passing game, quarterback often trumps other needs in the draft. Quarterback can even trump value. Depending on the day, any of at least a half dozen scenarios top my hope list for the Vikings 2014 NFL Draft. When I'm feeling really daring I imagine that Mack is available but I'll leave that out for now. Here are a few of my more realistic hopes:

1. Justin Gilbert  CB  Oklahoma St.
2. Kyle Van Noy  LB  BYU
3. Aaron Murray  QB  Georgia

1. Anthony Barr  LB  UCLA
2. Zach Mettenberger  QB  LSU

1. C.J. Mosley  LB  Alabama
2. Jimmy Garoppolo  QB  E. Illinois

1. Teddy Bridgewater  QB  Louisville
2. Kyle Van Noy  LB  BYU
3. Deone Bucannon  S  Washington St.

1.  Johnny Manziel  QB  Texas A&M
2.  Kyle Van Noy  LB  BYU
3.  Phillip Gaines  CB  Rice

1. Mike Evans  WR  Texas A&M
2. Jimmie Ward  S  N. Illinois
3a. Christian Kirksey  LB  Iowa
3b. Aaron Murray  QB  Georgia

1. Aaron Donald  DT  Pitt
2. Kyle Van Noy  LB  BYU
3. Aaron Murray  QB  Georgia

There are so many more. I wouldn't mind seeing Ohio St. linebacker Ryan Shazier in the mix somewhere. Basically, I can't decide when is the best time for the Vikings to attack the quarterback issue. If Bortles, Bridgewater, and/or Manziel is/are still on the board when the Vikings are on the clock at #8, quarterback has to be a consideration. Getting the right quarterback is the best way to keep from picking at the top of the draft every year. It's just that the defensive players at the top of this draft are so tempting. Adding to that is the talent at quarterback expected to be available in the second round, or later. Aaron Murray, Zach Mettenberger, Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr, and AJ McCarron probably would have been more highly rated than any quarterback in the 2011 NFL Draft outside of Cam Newton. Jake Locker, Blaine Babbert, and Christian Ponder were taken in the first twelve picks of that draft. This draft is remarkably talented and deep. For the past couple of weeks, I've had this feeling, a hunch, that the Vikings are going to pick UCLA linebacker Anthony Barr. He's only played the position for two years so he's still very raw. He has the natural athleticism to put him with the elite defensive players of this draft (Jadeveon Clowney and Kahlil Mack) but he's still such an unknown. That position inexperience has firmly placed him in the boom-or-bust category. Some teams and draft "experts" love him. Others question him. I've seen him make too many plays that very few football players can make. Plays that aren't just about explosion and athleticism but also about awareness. Barr is more than a great athlete. Anyway, it's all just a hunch.

This draft is a puzzle. A real puzzle.



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