Monday, April 30, 2012

Draft Evaluations?

Grading the drafts the day after or ever a week after is a pointless task. No one really knows the true impact until we've seen a few years on the field. Right now, every team has to like their drafts. They must have chosen those players for a reason. Right now, I think that the Rams, Giants, Eagles, Colts, Bears, Panthers, Bills and Texans all had terrific drafts. I liked all those drafts. I really liked the drafts of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I'll focus on those drafts. It's interesting to note that all but the Buccaneers made the playoffs last year. It looks like the strong got stronger.

Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have rarely protected quarterback Ben Roethlisberger very well. It's a good thing that he's excellent at making plays on the move. Teaming Stanford guard David DeCastro and Ohio St tackle Mike Adams with all-pro center Maurkice Pouncey may finally give Roethlisberger the protection he needs. Nose tackle Casey Hampton has had an excellent career. Unfortunately, he's nearing the end. Washington defensive tackle Alameda Ta'Amu will learn from Hampton and ease the transition. Ta'Amu is huge and active. Linebacker Sean Spence and Florida running back Chris Rainey help the Steelers' depth and special teams. Even in the Super Bowl years, the Steelers offensive line was a little weak. This draft changes that. It's amazing that they were able to haul in DeCastro and Adams.

Green Bay Packers
It's hard for me to believe that the Packers had the worst defense in the league. They have far too many playmakers for that to happen. No matter, it happened and they had to fix it. I think that they did. Their first three picks in the draft impress the most. USC defensive end Nick Perry could be scary. Pairing him with Clay Matthews will be a nightmare. Michigan St defensive tackle Jerel Worthy will tag-team nicely with BJ Raji. Vanderbilt cornerback Casey Hayward will learn from one of the best in Charles Woodson. All three will keep the Packers from hanging out at the bottom of the defensive statistics again. Fifth round linebacker Terrell Manning will help as well.

New England Patriots
Much of the same things said about the Packers defense can be said about the Patriots defensive performance last year. All offense. No defense. Absolutely none. The Patriots took the same approach to changing that in the draft. All defense. Six of their seven selections were on the defensive side of the ball. First round selections of Syracuse defensive end Chandler Jones and Alabama linebacker Dont'a Hightower were fantastic. Maybe illegal. Illinois safety Tavon Wilson and Arkansas defensive end Jake Baquette should play nice roles. Seventh round cornerback Alfonzo Denard could be a real steal. Like the Packers again, I don't see the Patriots at the bottom of the league's defensive statistics this year.

Cincinnati Bengals
Team owner Mike Brown must have been locked out of the Bengals draft room. I've always felt that he needs to be kept out of all personnel decision. He just doesn't know football like his father. This team has been a frequent, early picker in the NFL Draft. Poor drafting is what keeps them there. The Bengals, on paper on right now, may have had the best draft of all. If this draft, and last year's, is any indication, playoff appearances and late round selections will be the norm in Cincinnati. Alabama cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick, Wisconsin guard Kevin Zeitler, Penn St defensive tackle Devon Still, Rutgers receiver Muhamed Sanu, defensive tackle Brandon Thompson and Georgia tight end Orson Charles may all start next year. Adding six rookie starters to a playoff team is incredible. Six might be a stretch but the talent is there. They added one of all time favorite Cal players in receiver Marvin Jones in the fifth round. His smooth route running and hands might put him ahead of Sanu. Simply a great draft. The Bengals may have added significantly to their draft haul after they were done. They signed one of the most puzzling undrafted free agents in Arizona St linebacker Vontaze Burfict. There is little that Burfict can't do on the defensive side of the ball. Simply, he's a beast. He may also have to be heavily medicated to remain on the field. The NFL might frown on that. I remember a Minnesota Vikings-Washington Redskins game about six years ago. The late, great Redskins safety Sean Taylor came completely unhinged and essentially handed a close game to the Vikings. Successive unsportsmanlike conduct penalties changed that game. Eventually, Taylor got his life and football together and was starting to live up to his enormous potential. Unfortunately, his life was taken way too early. Burfict slaughtered his draft chances with his often out of control stunts on the field and baffling actions off the field since the end of his college career. If he can get his act together he can be a top-10 caliber player signed as a lowly undrafted free agent. It's little risk for the Bengals but it could pay off huge.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I found the 2011 Buccaneers to be one of the greatest mysteries of the past NFL season. They were way too talented to play so poorly. Coach Raheem Morris completely lost control of the team. It resulted in a nightmare season. Former Rutgers coach Greg Schiano seems to be the right person to get the team back on track. A talented team was bolstered by a nice free agency and a super draft. Alabama safety Mark Barron was quietly considered one of the elite players of the entire draft. Instead of battling with the Cleveland Browns for a shot at Alabama running back Trent Richards the Buccaneers grabbed a defensive difference maker in Barron and waited for the second round to grab a running back. Boise St's Doug Martin has drawn some comparisons to Matt Forte of the Chicago Bears. I actually see a little more of Baltimore Raven's Ray Rice in Martin. That would make Schiano happy as he coached Rice in college. He knows the potential impact of  incredibly versatile backs like Rice and Martin. Linebackers Lavonte David and Najee Goode could both see a lot of playing time as rookies. Mason Foster was very impressive as a rookie last year. Those three linebackers could combine for an excellent and very young group. The kind of group that changes an entire defense. The Buccaneers may do this year what I expected them to do last year. The NFC South already has two very strong teams in the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons. They may soon have two more in Tampa Bay and the Carolina Panthers.

Those are the five drafts that stood out the most to me. One other draft stood out to me for an entirely different reason.

Seattle Seahawks
There's always been something a little shady about Seattle coach Pete Carroll. It's probably all about his time at USC. Despite producing awesome offensive linemen like Ron Yary and Matt Kalil, that place just smells wrong. The sleazy USC coach was filled nicely by Carroll and currently taken to a whole other level by Lane Kiffin. Maybe it's all due to this uncomfortable feeling about Carroll but the Seahawks draft just seemed a little off. Like the coaches and scouts in the Pacific Northwest just see a different kind of football. West Virginia defensive end Bruce Irvin was the first real surprise of the first round. Mike Mayock said that Irvin was the most natural pass rusher in the draft. Irvin strikes me as an amazing college pass rusher. There aren't many 245 lb defensive ends in the NFL. Those that are close to that weight are challenging the 6' height barrier. At 6'3", Irvin has a completely different frame. The Seahawks obviously see something in him and they would know far better than me whether Irvin can either bulk up or maintain his college level of play at his current weight. I love the selection of Utah St linebacker Bobby Wagner in the second round. Then the Seahawks again went a little squirrelly in the third round even though I really like the player that they selected. I was shocked when Pete Carroll, after signing free agent quarterback Tarvaris Jackson last summer, called out the Vikings for not giving Jackson a chance. It really wasn't Carroll's place to comment on how the Vikings handled their players. I've never heard of a coach make such a direct criticism like that. Especially when it looked as if Carroll was doing the very same thing to Charlie Whitehurst that he claimed the Vikings did to Jackson. He handed the starting job to Jackson last year and to show his confidence in his quarterback proceded to sign free agent Matt Flynn this spring. To further show confidence in his quarterback duo, Carroll used his third round pick on Wisconson quarterback Russell Wilson. Despite being short by almost any quarterback standards, Wilson is an excellent football player. He simply wins games. I have no idea how Carroll can spend a third on quarterback when he already has Jackson and Flynn. It's as if he's just adding quarterbacks simply for the sake of adding quarterbacks. I like Utah St running back Robert Turbin but the Seahawks already have a similar hard runner in Marshawn Lynch. There's nothing wrong with a little more of the same especially if it wears down a defense. I just expected something a little different. Florida defensive tackle Jaye Howard is a terrific player and I can see him making an early impact. I actually like the players that Seattle drafted. I just find them a bit of an odd fit. This draft could turn out to be one of the best drafts of all time. You can never really tell so soon after the selections are made. Maybe my feelings of this being an odd draft come solely from my uncomfortable feelings about Pete Carroll. I just don't trust that guy.

There it is. The Flea Flicker Evaluations of a few of the drafts. There's others that I like. These are the just the ones that stood out the most for a variety of reasons. Some of the strong teams didn't have to do much to grab my attention. They just did whatever was necessary to maintain a high level of play. One comment that I have to make in terms of draft evaluations, that I don't think a lot of critics/media talking heads get, is "value". They throw that word out a lot. "This was a 'value' pick." "There was a lot of 'value' in drafting a player here." "Value" in regards to pretty much anything, but in this case the draft, is really in the eye of the beholder. The "value" of any player can only be made by the team making the selection. If a team likes a player and they don't see that player making it to their next selection, they have to take him where they are. Sure, they can trade back and maybe add a few picks but there is never any guarantee in that. Teams draft players based on how they alone "value" a player. It doesn't matter the "value" that anyone else may put on that player. It's easy to sit back and lay judgement on something when your livelihood doesn't depend on it's success. Just sayin'.

Hopefully, tomorrow will be the presentation of my all too in-depth evaluation of the best draft of all. That of the Minnesota Vikings. Championship!

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